In 2028, Japan and Canada will celebrate the 100th anniversary of diplomatic relations between our two countries. For me, this has special significance as I have been involved in this relationship on-and-off for half a century. 

In 1974, I interpreted for Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka when he met Pierre Trudeau at 24 Sussex Drive. At the time, Canada was then beginning to look to Asia as a part of a ‘third option,’ and Japan looked up to Canada for its moderating influence on the world scene in peacekeeping and other UN activities. 

In March 2004, as my time as ambassador in Ottawa ended, the canvas on which we chart the future of the Japan-Canada relationship had become much bigger than before, with potential for bilateral, regional and global synergies. Today, if we work in tandem, Japan and Canada can play even greater roles amid changing geopolitical circumstances. 

As ambassador, my priority was to search for ways to lift the bilateral relationship out of the static complacency of ‘trade complementarity’ (with Canada exporting natural resources to Japan, and Japan exporting cars and other manufactured goods to Canada). One solution that was explored for a time was a potential Japan-Canada Free Trade Agreement. 

This was superseded in 2008, however, by negotiations toward the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement, a process that grew to encompass 12 Asia-Pacific nations. When the U.S. withdrew from the process in 2017, Japan took the lead among the remaining 11. This led to the signing of the CPTPP (Comprehensive & Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) in Chile in March 2018. 

Under the CPTPP, Japan-Canada trade has been transformed into dynamic complementarity. Total merchandise trade grew 22% from around 1.6 trillion yen in 2018 to over 2.7 trillion in 2023. By eliminating 99% of tariffs, it increased Canadian exports of agricultural, seafood and forestry products while enabling easier Japanese access to Canadian markets. With the elimination of Canada’s 6.1% tariff on autos and auto parts, Japan’s automotive exports to Canada rose by 80% (from 551.9 billion yen to 996.2 billion) by 2023.

“Japan needs reliable likeminded partners that share fundamental values and principles 

– such as freedom, democracy and the rule of law”

In the meantime, the increasingly severe geopolitical environment surrounding Japan and Canada has made it necessary for both countries to take another look at their respective strategies for the future. 

Japan needs reliable likeminded partners that share fundamental values and principles – such as freedom, democracy and the rule of law – to promote a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP). 

In his January speech at Davos, PM Carney articulated his concern over the “rupture” of the post-Cold-War order and sounded the alarm that powerful nations are using economic coercion to get what they want. In response, he called for “middle powers” such as Canada to act together to counter the rise of hegemonic power. He left no doubt that Canada now seeks to reduce its over-dependence on the U.S. and diversify its trading relationships. It seeks partners with which it can work together, while utilizing its strength in energy resources, critical minerals, advanced technology and innovation. 

Is Japan one of these middle powers? Some say no because Japan should not drift away from its only alliance, which is with the U.S. In my view, Japan can step up efforts to maintain and enhance its U.S. alliance, while acting as a middle power at the same time. What matters is the kind of role that a country like Japan can play amid the rivalry of superpowers, while choosing not to pursue their unilateralist diplomacy. PM Carney takes the flexible approach of “variable geometry,” meaning, different coalitions for different issues based on common values and interests. Seen in this light, there should be a role for Japan to play in areas of common values and interests. The two documents on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership issued during PM Carney’s March visit to Japan identified such areas of common values and interests, with emphasis on ‘security’ in the broad sense of that term.

Security cooperation between Japanese and Canadian forces is being stepped up, including expanded joint exercises. With agreements in place on Security of Information, Acquisition & Cross-servicing and Transfer of Defense Equipment & Technology, Canada is following the path of the UK and Australia in becoming Japan’s “quasi-allies.” Cooperation is also under way in maritime security. RCAF long-range patrol aircraft are now engaged in monitoring of illicit activities such as ship-to-ship transfers by North-Korean flagged vessels, and the fight against illegal fishing. A Cyber Policy Dialogue is to be established to strengthen cyber-security and cyber-defence cooperation.

In the energy sector, in addition to growing exports of Canadian LNG and LPG to Japan and plans to construct Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), initiatives are underway on battery supply chains.

Amid growing concerns over export restrictions on critical minerals and other resources, cooperation will also be strengthened in enhancing supply-chain resilience, including critical minerals. This highlights Canada’s role as an important anchor for Japan’s economic security. An Economic Security Dialogue is to be launched this year with a view to enhancing economic security cooperation with like-minded countries.

On trade and investment, Japan and Canada intend to work together to deepen engagement with the EU and ASEAN toward expanding and strengthening the CPTPP. 

One current bilateral issue: Japanese automakers that manufacture in Canada (and account for over half of Canada’s vehicle exports to the U.S.) are concerned about how they may be affected by plans to allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles per year into the Canadian market. They are also concerned about the Canada-
US-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) coming up for review on July 1 this year. Failure to renew CUSMA, or a move towards separate bilateral deals, could introduce uncertainty, disrupt established supply chains, increase tariffs and dampen economic growth.

Thus, the canvas charting the future of Japan-Canada relations does not allow for complacency or inaction, but we can expand and enrich it if we work together in full recognition of our common values and interests. As we approach the 100th anniversary of our diplomatic relations, let us move on to fill the canvas to our mutual satisfaction.